Back to the future: the long-term effects of skilled migration on tech-intensive trade

An emerging literature suggests that current international trade is partially explained by historical migration flows, alongside current ones. This paper provides new insights and empirical evidence about this long-run pro-trade effect of historical migration. Using hybrid panel data models, we study the link between the Italian emigration of skilled and unskilled workers in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and the current knowledge-based high-technology manufacturing exports of Italian regions. Our findings support the idea that historical skilled migration has a greater long-term impact than historical unskilled migration.