China 2024 – Preparing for future challenges through self-reliance

Developments in China’s domestic politics in 2024 confirmed the country’s recent shift towards a political paradigm premised on self-reliance. Economic recovery remained a priority for Beijing, which continued to be the strongest advocate for the removal of trade barriers. However, the Party-state placed a much greater weight on the country’s long-term future. That future may be clouded by sudden, hardly foreseeable challenges, such as those that emerged during the first presidency of Donald Trump, as well as by the neglect of long-standing domestic issues. The response to such potential challenges was articulated at the third plenum of the 20th Party Congress through the Decision on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform to Advance Chinese-Style Modernisation. This programmatic document addressed all aspects of domestic politics relevant to minimising the risk of systemic crises. To mitigate such risks, the People’s Republic of China intended to achieve a greater self-sufficiency in food, minerals, energy and cutting-edge technologies. The choice to create fully indigenous supply, production and value chains is unprecedented since 1978. Also novel was the decision to relax the country’s monetary policy to cushion the impact of the real-estate slump and sustain domestic demand. Foreign investments and markets remained important for China. However, the rationale of the third plenum suggests that the country was seeking to strengthen its capacity to withstand a potential, sudden unplugging of global production and value chains while maintaining a leading role in cutting-edge technologies